When the mass unlockening first hit last week, trends looked good but it was too soon to make any declarations.
At risk of jinxing it, I’m ready to declare this a bullish unlock, possibly the most bullish unlock in Convex history.
This past week’s mass relocking $CVX, as well as the record breaking locking of $CRV, would be hot enough in any circumstance. Coming amidst the coldest depths of crypto winter, it’s straight fire.
Convex
Today will see another wave of unlocks, but the trend of last week’s unlocks are now abundantly clear. Two thirds relocked, with 17% still on the fence. Less than 5% dumped. Great ratios.
Joining the relock party this week is none other than $TERRA.
While our ghoulishly unpopular take is that we rejoice at lower token prices, we’re also empathetic to the many members of the community who prefer to see prices going up. We sincerely hope spirits are heartened by the sudden 50% upswing.
We don’t offer price analysis here, but Charlie Pyle’s commentary on reflexivity of veTokens starting in minute 14 describes the effect (the entire video worth a listen).
For further details on the bull case that’s inspiring so many large protocols to relock:
As the bullish relock plays out, the $CVX supply reduction has started increasing sharply, hitting record high values itself.
Although the vast majority of protocols and whales have opted to simply relock on Convex, I’ve been most intrigued by the flockening to various $CVX wrappers. The point-by-point comparison among the three services requested in yesterday’s marathon livestream is in the works, but here’s a quick rundown of the top options.
Badger
Pulling into the lead is BadgerDAO’s $bveCVX vault, attracting 465K new $CVX. Badger has figured out tokenomics that work well on both the backend…
…and taken the time to decorate it in a wonderful frontend…
For more details, check Badger’s recent content describing it in far more detail.
CLever
CLever’s $clevCVX is trailing close behind $bveCVX, gaining 311K $CVX to bring them to 600K total.
The referenced airdrop is the upcoming CLever airdrop, which will be distributed partly based on early usage of CLever. If you’re considering $clevCVX for this or any other reason, here’s some tips on how to use it.
Note also that CLever’s sister protocol is also preparing for an airdrop in the form of an IFO, currently undergoing audits to prepare for the occasion.
PIREX
The final option of note is Pirex, which just crossed the $4MM TVL marker at 676K total locked $CVX:
The Pirex solution is well architected. In addition to the team’s write-up, check out flowing user testimonials.
$CRV Lockening
Speaking of bullish locks, the mass $CRV locking hysteria continues. In fact, Tuesday set a new Curve record.
The past eight days has witnessed the largest volume of Curve locking ever.
When I first saw this chart, my first thought was that FRAX must have begun locking their $CRV instead of dumping. What’s wild is that these locks are leading the FRAX adjustment, which is still working its way through governance.
Even as we publish, the $CRV locking trend shows no sign of slowing down.
Locked $CRV is notable because it’s essentially locked “forever.” While it’s possible users withdraw after the typical 3.5 year lock, the incentives - and volume locked by Convex - suggests we’ll see little drama if the earliest $CRV lockers choose to wind down in a few years.
The fact so much $CRV is locked in Convex exposes the considered construction of the flywheel. Convex passed ownership of 50% of the locked $CRV in June and keeps pushing upwards.
FRAX
Finally, we’d be remiss if we didn’t comment on the newest gear in the flywheel, Frax Finance. Even absent their latest big moves, FRAX has become the heavyweight favorite in the Curve Wars.
Did you know their legacy $FRAX-3CRV pool is already bigger than 3pool?
The entire Curve Wars are likely to get reshaped as the $200MM and growing FRAX-USDC Base[d]pool continues gathering momentum. The number of pools already launching against this crvFRAX pool hints at the seismic shift underway.
This is earning great yield on Curve directly, with potentially greater yield elsewhere.
Frax is counting on the launch of Fraxlend to cover any shortfall caused by moving from $CRV dumping to $CRV locking.
To get a sense of how smoothly new flywheel might spin, scope these fine threads:
gm! love your content and the threads you curated here. im quite new to curve ecosystem and im looking forward to invest into it but not sure exactly where to start. do i go with cvxCRV or CVX into vlCVX or use other wrapper like Pirex, BadgerDAO? thank you so much 🙏