The rule of thumb in tradfi is two quarters of declining GDP is a recession. Since crypto markets have about 5x the trading hours of traditional markets, is it fair to prorate this to say a one month decline equals crypto recession? DeFi Summer looking to give way to DeFi Winter.
However you define it, it’s safe to say crypto markets are bleeding badly. The Bitcoin fear index is testing new lows.
Here’s the new playbook crypto investors are circulating as they dig in for a potentially protracted crypto winter:
Stablecoins are more than ever the name of the game. It’s a boom market for fiat. The first six months of 2021 has already nearly doubled the entire transaction volume of stablecoins for all years preceding.
Where do these stablecoins go? Again it’s not even close. Curve by a country mile.
Yield farming is not just for stablecoins. Bitcoin is increasingly seeing itself wrapped onto Ethereum so it can find its way to yield farming.
All around crypto, as investors consider the possibility of a protracted winter, we’re seeing activity finding its way onto DeFi. This could be the first crypto winter with a robust DeFi ecosystem, and it might mean that DeFi winter is a lot more tolerable. Just bunker down and harvest 20% yields and you still emerge miles ahead of nocoiners.
With relatively safe and consistent yields becoming the dominant strategy, it’s little surprise Curve volumes are soaring. At the rate it’s growing, Curve is on pace to flippen AAVE by total volume locked.
Particularly notably, Curve’s monster growth has come despite what amounts to an across-the-board media blackout on talking about Curve.
Consider Exhibit A:
$25MM? Merely a rounding error, peasant.
Exhibit B… How would you feel if you were paying analysts big bucks for research, and they generated a report with such glaring holes.
Question for the lawyers… if a client paid for this report, is The Block liable to be sued for negligence? It would be like commissioning a report soft drinks that missed out on any mention of Coca-Cola.
If you choose to do your own research, be careful which DeFi aggregator you use. As Curve celebrated $10 Billion TVL, several people were unaware. Consider Exhibit C:
Three pieces of evidence… it’s technically constitutes spree. Fortunately anybody enjoying the juicy yields on Curve is cognizant of the fact that their media sources are not doing a good job of depicting reality.
Much of the now-boomer DeFi resources set their narratives very early. Their narrative didn’t include Curve, and narratives are a difficult thing to change.
Fortunately this space is new enough that “news” sources don’t have any particular competitive moat. Whenever a media source doesn’t reflect the reality people observe, they simply switch to one that better describes the world. Out goes DeFi Pulse, in comes DeFi Llama. Eyeballs migrate from CoinDesk to Rekt. It’s the circle of life.
It’s really incredibly bullish to think about. If Curve is on path to become the top DeFi site despite a media vacuum, what’s the only direction it could go? New and better news sites emerge to fill the void… boomer news sites have to shift coverage to compete… Curve earns the respect its due… numbers go up.
You think growth was impressive before… we’re going to need more Billy’s!
For more info, check our live market data at https://curvemarketcap.com/ or our subscribe to our daily newsletter at https://curve.substack.com/. Nothing in our newsletter can be construed as financial advice, or even coding advice. Author is a $CRV maximalist, also owns dwindling BTC and ETH and ascendant stablecoins.