June 27, 2022: Previewing the Unlockening 🕯🔮
Data analysis of trends to watch in the upcoming $CVX unlock.
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Earlier this month we crunched some numbers to refute the inane Curve Death Spiral™️ FUD. While evidence is hardly convincing for trolls, it’s still at least helpful to observe how their arguments change after asking for help poking holes in the data. “Doesn’t feel right" is usually as far as the argument goes beyond there.
Nonetheless, we’d legitimately like to reiterate our call for help. If Curve is indeed at risk of a death spiral, it’s in the clear public interest for our readership to know! If you can offer suggestions about where a potential collapse may be hiding in the data, please reach out and we’ll crunch the numbers on your behalf — anonymity guaranteed if you like!
Until then, we’re pleased to see the meme magic holding.
Curve is earning its antifragility the hard way, through an increase in trading volume.
So where does this all leave Convex, formerly the strongest gear in Curve’s flywheel?
The Convex community has been through the ringer lately. The community remains pleasantly active, but the mood has turned to full on gallows humor.
Last week saw the surprise frontend hack on Convex, which thankfully got caught quickly.
Meanwhile, the latest Votium bribe round clocked in at a relative low.
It’s an ominous set of circumstances heading into the mass unlock event in just a few days, when about a quarter of the supply will unlock all at once.
Everybody is literally guessing which way this unlock event is likely to go.
We don’t pretend to be able to predict the future (nor do we offer financial advice). Yet we can extend the aforementioned data analysis we ran on Curve to try to identify some of the factors one might consider as a purely educational exercise.
Unfortunately, the analysis is still quite raw, so we’re inviting more scrutiny before we open the discussion to the broader public.
Ergo, we’ll make the notebook and raw data public, but the rest of the article is paywalled until we get more brains on it. If you have some data science chops and can credibly help us review our interpretation of this notebook, please feel free to ping! We’re happy to confidentially walk you through our process of interpreting the data.
Otherwise, we’ll refer you to some other great resources on Convex in the meantime.
